Sahara News Network has conducted a pre- poll survey in Uttar Pradesh between 21st December 2011 and 5th January, 2012 in all the 403 constituencies spread over 72 districts. The sample size was 2,01,500 which was selected randomly keeping in mind the percentage of population distributed in terms of rural- urban, male, female and different castes and community groups.
The attempt was to make the sample as representative in character as possible. A total of 25 questions were asked to elicit the opinion of the voters. We believe that the findings of the survey, in all likelihood, will hold true if elections are being held today. We must reiterate that there could be a sampling error of up to 3%.
Summary of findings:
Overall Seats Projection
SP- 140- 150
BSP- 100- 110
BJP- 80 – 90
Cong+- 60 – 70
Others- 10- 15
Likely vote percentage
BSP- 21.48%
SP – 26.06%
BJP – 20.67%
Congress – 18.48%
RLD – 2.5 %
Others – 10.81%
Prefered Chief Minister
Mulayam Singh Yadav – 26%
Rahul Gandhi – 19%
Rahnath Singh – 18 %
Mayawati – 18 %
Others — 19%
Questions and findings-
We tried to assess what are the major problems that affect voters daily life?
The answer was —
Inflation – 40%
Corruption- 24%
Unemployment- 22%
Other — 14%
2. Whom do you held responsible for these problems?
The answer was –
Chief Minister – 34%
State Govt – 18%
Central Govt- 15%
MLA- 18%
Others- 15%
We asked which issue will determine your voting ?
The answer was –
Development – 31%
Corruption- 19%
Inflation – 19%
Candidates personality – 13%
Others – 18%
We tried to find out voters opinion on some current issues as well that might have bearing on their voting behaviour.
We asked do they know about Lok Pal Bill?
The answer was –
Yes -36%
No -29%
To some extent – 35%
5. We further asked from those who said yes , how they judge Anna”s demand of the Lok Pal Bill?
The answer was-
Justified – 74
Not Justified – 26
We asked from those who justified Anna`s demand if Anna make an appeal to either vote for or against any party, will they adhere to such an appeal?
The answer was-
Yes – 35%
To some extent -22%
No -23%
Don’t Know – 20%
We asked in their opinion which party best safeguard their caste/community interests?
The answer was –
Upper caste Hindus –
BJP—40%
Cong – 21%
SP – 18%
BSP -10%
Others – 11%
SCs
BSP – 42%
SP – 16%
BJP – 15%
Cong- 15%
Others- 12%
OBC
SP- 31%
BJP – 27%
Cong -18%
BSP – 11%
Others – 13%
Minorities
SP- 38%
Cong -23%
BSP – 14%
BJP – 8%
Others – 17%
We asked how they view the compensation given by the state government to the farmers for acquiring their land?
The answer was –
Not sufficient – 62%
Sufficient – 13%
Don’t Know – 25%
We asked what should be the process of land acquisition?
The answer was-
With farmers consent- 42%
Fertile land must not be acquired -21%
Govt and pvt company together -16%
Don’t Know – 21%
We asked do they support the bifurcation of Uttar Pradesh into 4 States?
The answer was-
Don’t agree – 40%
Agree- 27%
To some extent agree- 17%
Don’t know – 16%
11. We asked should the youth be given the role of leading Uttar Pradesh?
The answer was
Yes – 55%
No – 26%
Don’t Know – 19%
12. We asked from those who said yes – whom they think is best suited to take the leadership role?
The answer was-
Rahul Gandhi- 48%
Akhilesh Yadav – 23%
Jayant Choudhary – 4%
Others – 25%
13 .We asked to what extent they are satisfied with the work done by the present govt in last 5 yrs in various sector?
The answer was-
Satisfied – 43%
Unsatisfied – 45%
Don’t Know- 12%
14. We asked which govt , in their view, performed better ?
BSP- 12%
SP – 18%
BJP- 17%
Cong- 10%
None – 43%
15. Are you satisfied with your MLAs work?
Yes – 26%
NO – 74%
16. Will you reelect your MLA?
Overall- Yes – 26%
NO- 74%
17. Will you re elect the present BSP Govt?
Overall- Yes- 20
No- 63%
Don’t Know – 17%
18. Who in your opinion is a better CM candidate?
Mayawati – 18 %
Mulayam Singh Yadav – 26%
Rahnath Singh – 18 %
Rahul Gandhi – 19%
Others — 19%
19. Who is your preferred party?
BSP – 25%
SP – 26%
BJP – 23%
Congress 18%
Others – 8%
20. Whom you will vote in 2012 assembly election?
BSP- 21.48%
SP – 26.06%
BJP – 20.67%
Congress – 18.48%
RLD – 2.5 %
Others – 10.81%
Region BSP SP BJP CONG RLD OTH Total
Awadh
No of Seat 20 52 23 21 0 2 118
Vote % 20.08 29.37 18.71 19.40 12.50
Bundelkhand
No of Seat 2 5 2 10 0 0 19
Vote % 18.73 23.11 18.32 26.2 13.69
Purvanchal
No of Seat 37 50 31 5 0 7 130
Vote % 21.15 25.73 21.95 16.87 0.13 14.16
Western
No of Seat 45 35 29 12 12 3 136
Vote % 23.48 23.77 21.56 18.28 2.50 12.92
Over all
No of Seat 104 142 85 48 12 12 403
Vote % 21.48 26.06 20.67 18.48 0.90 12.40
