: SAHARA Exit Poll Survey Findings (Uttar Pradesh) : SAHARA NEWS NETWORK has conducted Exit Poll for Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. The Poll was conducted in each phase of the poll and a total of 135 seats of the 403 seats of state assembly were covered. The selection of seats, booths and voters were done randomly. The selected seats were spread over all the districts and all the Lok Sabha constituencies of the State.
We randomly selected 250 voters from the updated Election Commission’s voters list from 10 randomly selected booths in each constituency. The total sample size is 33,750. We ensured selection of sample as per the percentage of population in terms of Rural/Urban, Male/Female, SC, Minorities, OBC and General categories voters.
The findings: As per our Exit Poll data the party position in the state assembly is likely to be:
Party 2012 Projection 2007 Gain/Loss
SP 188 (183–193) 97 +91
BSP 83 (78–88) 206 -123
BJP 64 (59-69) 51 +13
Cong 55 (50-60) 32 (Cong 22+RLD 10) +23
OTH 13 (8-18) 17 -4
The Vote % is likely to be
Party 2012 (Projection) 2007 Gain/Loss
SP 29.5% 26.14% + 3.36%
BSP 23.4% 30.45% -7.05%
BJP 19.8% 17% + 2.8%
Cong+ 16.9% 12.17% + 4.73%
OTH 10.4% 14.24% – 3.84%
Why this change is happening? Is it because of historical voter turnout? Who is voting for whom? Why the scenario changed from the time we conducted opinion poll? As per our exit poll data voters choice of party in 2012 as compared to their choice in 2007…
Party 2012 (Projection) 2007
SC OBC GEN Minorities SC OBC GEN Minorities
SP 13.7% 39.39% 24.15% 44.71% 15% 30.68% 18.17% 38.82%
BSP 63.7% 16.39% 13.92% 16.55 % 49.06% 20.84% 18.88% 24.75%
BJP 8.6% 20% 37.64% 6.09% 12.36% 21.74% 33.81% 6.63%
Cong+ 8.86% 15.46% 19.21% 20.9% 11.14% 13.23% 16.27% 16.79%
OTH 5.15% 8.76% 5.08% 10.83% 12.44% 13.52% 12.86% 13.01%
Change from our Opinion Poll projection
Party 2012 (Projection) Opinion Poll Estimation
SC OBC GEN Minorities SC OBC GEN Minorities
SP 13.7% 39.39% 24.15% 44.71% 11.19% 33.46% 21.68% 35.87%
BSP 63.7% 16.39% 13.92% 16.55% 56.38% 12.87% 11.09% 19.37%
BJP 8.6% 20% 37.64% 6.09% 9.08% 22.9% 33.84% 6.09%
Cong+ 8.86% 15.46% 19.21% 20.9% 15.12% 17.77% 21.13% 23.7%
OTH 5.15% 8.76% 5.08% 10.83% 8.24% 12.99% 12.26% 4.98%
The above data indicates that SP has not only increased its vote share from 2007 but also from the time we conducted our opinion poll ( From 21 Dec 2011 to 5th Jan 2012), but has also increased its vote share across caste and community. The BSP loss is largely due to decline in vote share in OBC/General and minority category. However, the SC voters have further consolidated in favour of BSP. The BJP has got boost from increase in the vote share of general category voters but its vote share in OBC and SC has declined. This explains why BJP could not increase its seats in a big way. Cong + RLD has increased their vote share in OBC/General and minority voters as compared to 2007 but they lost momentum and post our opinion poll. Others also faced similar fate.
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